September 10 – The CIES Football Observatory have ranked Serbian SuperLiga side Red Star Belgrade as the most likely champions in a prediction analysis of the top 30 leagues this season, giving the Serbians a likelihood of 76.2% to win. This feels like a safe bet considering they have been crowned champions every season for more than a decade.
European and French champions PSG follow with a 73% likelihood of retaining their domestic title – by far the most one-sided of the top five leagues this season – while Mamelodi Sundowns sit third in the CIES rankings at 70.6%.
At the other end of the prediction ranking, the UAE Pro League, Italian Serie A and Dutch Eredivisie are the most tightly-contested, with Shabab Al Ahli (23.5%), Inter (25.6%) and Feyenoord (28.6%) heading their domestic league rankings, but only just.
In England, Premier League holders Liverpool hold the edge in the title race after a nine-point start and a plethora of record-breaking summer signings to add to an already impressive squad. At 28.9% likelihood, they are well ahead of last year’s runners-up Arsenal (18.8%) and Club World Cup champions Chelsea (16.2%).
Real Madrid (40.6%) beat out arch-rivals FC Barcelona (29.6%) by a large margin to lead the La Liga predictions, despite finishing second to Hansi Flick’s side last term.
As usual, Atletico Madrid follow at 22.1% despite their awful opening to campaign which has earned them just two points from three games.
Serie A, meanwhile, remains one of Europe’s most unpredictable battlegrounds. Inter sit top of the projections at 25.6%, but Juventus (18.2%) and Napoli (17.4%) are still firmly in contention.
Germany tells a different story. Bayern Munich dominate the Bundesliga forecast with a commanding 61.4% predicted chance of another title, while Borussia Dortmund lag well behind at 8.8% and Bayer Leverkusen have completely fallen off the map. Be it because of their revolving door of management or their inability to replace their outgoing stars – nobody is backing big things from Bayer.
Taken together, the data shows the divide in modern football: near monopolies in Serbia, France and Germany, set against genuine title races in Italy and the Netherlands.
To see the full ranking, click here.
Contact the writer of this story, Harry Ewing, at moc.l1771517638labto1771517638ofdlr1771517638owedi1771517638sni@g1771517638niwe.1771517638yrrah1771517638